Kaya ba ni Grace Poe?


Senator Grace Poe's entry into the 2016 presidential derby might affect Vice President Jejomar Binay and administration standard bearer Mar Roxas votes.

UP-based political analyst Prof. Ranjit Rye explained to ABS-CBN that Poe has a lot of middle class voters as well as voters that cut across the spectrum.

"She'll be eating into all. She'll affect both Binay and Roxas. My sense is she'll be affecting Roxas more. Roxas doesn't have a consolidated vote that you can say 'Roxas vote,'" Rye said.

But it won't just be votes Poe will be snatching from the more established Roxas and Binay, he said.

Poe and running mate Senator Francis Escudero are running as independents, but this early, as many as four groups, three of whom are allies of the administration, are talking about carrying Poe.

This is not readily apparent yet.

"Successful candidates should have party, pera, political machine to translate their support," said Rye. "That doesn't seem apparent now."

However, Rye believes Poe's announcement may be the signal for her supporters to band together, no matter how loosely. "With this announcement now she might push decision for coalition building," he said.

He believes Poe's supporters may not come out until much later, especially those in the administration. Administration candidates enjoy the resources of the government as well as protection from police harassment during the campaign and the elections.

"It's possible coalition building will be a work in progress till few months before elections. It's rational for people to study where she is now as far as party building is concerned... A lot of people still need the support of the administration. Movements will not be finalized in the medium term. Certainly before elections by January you'll see a realignment of forces," he said.

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